The Fallacy of Hard Tests
Just because I know how much my classmates for contracts will appreciate this, I’ll point out Unexpected Truths: The Fallacy of Hard Tests.
A great deal of fuss is often made about failing the bar exam. The news a few weeks ago was that Governor Patakis daughter passed the exam, but it is always mentioned that it was her second try. Similarly, John Kennedy, Jr. failed the New York bar exam twice, before finally passing it on his third try.
As one who took several medical licensure and specialist exams, and the Virginia bar exam, passing all, I might be inclined to pat myself on the back, but my former background as a mathematician won’t let me do that. I do remember, however, some remarks from a noted orthopedic surgeon about his own specialty exam: “It was a hellishly hard test, and went on for hours,” he said, ”but I’m really glad I passed the first time I took it. Only about 35 percent who took it passed the exam.”
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The reason these tests are fraudulent—and the harder they are, the more they are fraudulent—is that for an extremely difficult test graded in that way, guessing tends to count much more than knowledge.
Read the whole thing for the analysis and decide for yourself.
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Are you trying to say you are lucky? ;)